Free Agency Math Doesn’t Add Up for the Angels
October 28th, 2009 | by Garrett Wilson |We all knew this day was coming. Now that the Angels’ season is finally over, it is time to address their complicated free agency issue. Break out your calculator and put on your thinking caps because it is time to crunch the numbers to see what the Angels even have to spend this summer.
Want to celebrate again, Arte? Then get out your checkbook.
To recap, the Angels spent roughly $114 million on player salaries in this recently completed season. But now they are faced with the prospect of having to re-sign or replace several big ticket players. The Halos’ full free agent list is this: Vladimir Guerrero, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Darren Oliver, and Robb Quinlan. That immediately creates 6 spots on the active roster to fill (Escobar doesn’t count as he was on the 60-day disabled list). It also means that nearly $33 million is coming off the payroll which should at least give Tony Reagins and company some option for repopulating the vacated roster spots. But is it enough for the Halos to bring back all their key players as well as find the missing pieces to push the team over the championship hump?
For the purposes of this exercise we are going to assume that Arte Moreno will be willing to up his payroll all the way to $120 million (where it was two seasons ago) since he can see how close this team is to a title. We will also have to make certain assumptions about what the slew of arbitration eligible players will earn, and they do have a few players (Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis) who can expect big raises this winter. I won’t bore you with my assumptions, but my calculations leave the Angels at roughly a $90 million payroll before they even start talking to any free agents, even their own, leaving the front office $30 million to work with. That is a lot of money in the real world, but in pro baseball, that might as well be petty cash.
In a perfect world the Angels would bring back Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu and Darren Oliver. The front office would love to do it, the fans would love to see it, but there is just no way they can pull it off in their current budget structure. John Lackey is seeking AJ Burnett-type money putting him at about $17 million per year. Bobby Abreu has already turned down an $8 million annual salary, so he’ll probably cost at least $9 million. Vladimir Guerrero will essentially be this year’s Abreu, trying to find a cheap one-year deal to rebuild his worth. Given his recent health, I don’t see him making more than $4 million. If Darren Oliver doesn’t retire, he’ll be looking for a modest raise after his stellar season, that puts him right around $4 million as well. Finally, there is Chone Figgins who is the best leadoff hitter on the market and will thus be in high demand with estimates placing him at a $10 million salary. If the Angels bring those five back at those prices, they’d be forking over $44 million. You don’t need a PhD in mathematics to know that $44 million is a whole lot more than $30 million and that sucks hard for the Angels.
I know it is sad, but the Angels are going to have to say goodbye to some fan favorites.
The Scott Kazmir trade and just about every single rumor from the front office has the Angels already throwing up the white flag on re-signing John Lackey. Remove him from the equation and the Angels are at $27 million spent. That fits their budget, but it also means they have just $3 million to find a fifth starter, fix the leaky bullpen and add another potent bat to the line-up. In other words, they are still screwed. That basically leaves the Angels with two option. Let Vlad walk and make just minor upgrades to the team with the remaining $7 million or say goodbye to Chone Figgins and try and make one big splash with $13 million. Either way the Angels seem to be looking at a 2010 roster that just isn’t as good as the 2009 roster and the 2009 roster couldn’t reach the World Series much less win it.
Those are some cold hard numbers that the Angel front office is going to have to find a way to overcome. Clearly just spending cash on free agents is not going to be a major part of their off-season plans, so expect Tony Reagins to be very active in seeking out trades this winter as a way of adding talent without adding to the payroll. In an economy where nearly every team is trying to cut spending as well, Reagins is really going to have his work cut out for him.
Is their a realistic plan that can work? Check back later this week for my plan for upgrading the Angels’ 2010 roster.
Tags: Arte Moreno, Bobby Abreu, Chone Figgins, Darren Oliver, free agency, Hot Stove League, Howie Kendrick, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Maicer Izturis, Robb Quinlan, Rumors, Tony Reagins, Vladimir Guerrero
By Dennis on Oct 29, 2009
First of all, enjoy reading your insights. Thought the best way to show my appreciation is to participate, so here goes:
I’m thinking Lackey and Figgins will find greener pastures elsewhere. I would bring back Abreu to play RF, DH, and hit leadoff. He will probably require around $10 million per year for at least two years. I would sign Takashi Saito to close. He made $1.5 million this year coming off an injury and had a solid year this year (though he wasn’t as dominant as he was with the Dodgers), and I think he could be had for around $4 million. We can slide Fuentes into the Darren Oliver role, and most importantly, we can make sure Fuentes doesn’t finish 55 games in 2010 and have his $9 million option for 2011 vest, saving us a lot of money. We need more depth in the lineup, so I would go after one of the Yankee discards, Matsui or Damon to rotate in LF and DH. I would prefer Matsui since I think he will be cheaper and won’t require as long of a commitment, maybe something like a one or two year deal at $6.5 million per. Finally, I’d think about taking a chance at a high-risk, high-upside SP like Ben Sheets or Erik Bedard. I’d prefer Sheets since it looks like he will be ready to go at the start of the year (while Bedard will miss at least the first month, and shoulder injuries are much trickier to come back from). I’d think about signing Sheets to a one or two year deal at $7 million per if it looks like he’s healthy. So, if my math is right, with Abreu making $10 million, Matsui $6.5 million, Saito $4 million, and Sheets $7 million, that would bring us to $27.5 million. And if we are able to ink Matsui, Saito, and Sheets to one year deals, that would leave us with money to go after a #1 starter like Halladay, Lee, or Beckett next winter.
I do realize that we would be taking chances on guys who are old and/or possess significant injury histories, but it seems kind of necessary if we are going to fill numerous holes within a budget. I am kind of interested in Matt Holliday due to his relative youth and skill set, but he’s going to require at least $16 million per year, so I’d rather have Abreu and Matsui since we need more depth in the lineup. Maybe Holliday would make sense if we are able to swing a GMJ for Milton Bradley deal.
By Garrett Wilson on Oct 29, 2009
Good work, Dennis. I especially like the Saito signing. I think everyone can agree the Angels can’t rely on Fuentes as closer next year.
By Vanessa on Oct 29, 2009
Noooooo to Matsui though! Both him & Damon are as badly inconsistent as Rivera. Plus, Matsui has the bad knees. Don’t we have any better prospects (like Reggie) ourselves than to go out & get more inconsistency?
By Garrett Wilson on Oct 29, 2009
Oh, Vanessa, you had me until Regiie. I don’t get the segment of Angel fans that think Willits need to play everyday. He is a fourth outfielder at best. The last thing the Halos need is to waste a corner outfield spot on his slap-hitting ass.
By Dennis on Oct 30, 2009
Matsui certainly has his flaws, including two bad knees. But he did hit 28 homers in 142 games this year, with a .274/.367/.509 line. He hit 13 homers with a .265/.354/.462 line in the first half of 2009 and 15 homers with a .286/.383/.567 line in the second half. He hit 15 homers with a .271/.370/.465 against righthanded pitching and 13 homers and a .282/.358/.618 line against lefthanders. He really doesn’t have much a platoon split and can mash lefties as well as righties. And he has such a good approach at the plate, seeing a lot of pitches and wearing down opposing pitchers. The fact that he only struck out 11 more times than he walked (64 bb/75 k)is especially impressive considering he hit with power as well. Hopefully, the Angels have learned from the Bobby Abreu experience and will start to go after guys who are able to put together good at bats. Willits is certainly a useful player, but only off the bench.