Tony the Trader struck again, this time hitting it big with Dan Haren? The trade seems like a steal on the surface, but if we dive in deep, is it still all good for the Angels?
Welcome aboard, Dan. Please try to not turn into Scott Kazmir version 2.0.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THE TRADE:
- The first thing I thought when the Angels got Haren was that the Angels just became a scary team if they make the playoffs. No team is going to want to face a rotation of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro. They may not have the same name recognition as the Yankee or Red Sox rotation, but those are four damned good starting pitchers. Now the Angels just need the hitters to start holding up their end of the bargain.
- It turns out my conspiracy theory of Tyler Skaggs not being the PTBNL was wrong. Good. This is a rare instance where I love being wrong. Turns out he can’t be traded until August 7th since that is when he first signed with the Angels and MLB rules don’t let teams trade prospects until they have been under contract for a year. Skaggs is a real talent, but he is a long way from the majors, so the Halos won’t miss him for a few years yet… if at all.
- The Angels did real well for themselves not just in adding a talent like Haren, but adding him when he is still under contract through 2013. So, if they don’t make the playoffs this season (an increasingly likely proposition), they are still in great shape for next season and beyond. And at $12.75 million in 2011 and 2012, Haren should be a relative bargain, keeping the Angels still in prime position to be players in the free agent market (hello, Carl Crawford!). And if you really break it down, Joe Saunders was probably due to make at least $5 million in arbitration next season, so the Angels are really only adding like $7 million to next season’s payroll.
- There is some real concern about Haren’s numbers this season, making some people fret that Dan Haren will be Scott Kazmir the sequel. Fear not, my friends. First off, Haren doesn’t have the injury history Kazmir has. His velocity is virtually identical to last season’s, so it isn’t like he is breaking down and the Angels are getting a lemon here. Haren has just been really unlucky. His ERA currently stands at 4.60, but his FIP is 3.90 and his xFIP is 3.38, so he should be much better than this. Even his BABIP of .350 is through the roof compared to his career numbers and it seems far more likely that he has just been unlucky there rather than suddenly become much more hittable. He still doesn’t issue many walks and is striking out a batter per inning, so all he really needs to do is bide his time and wait for Lady Luck to start treating him a little better.
- A major concern with trading for a National League pitcher is there ability to transition to a new league. Such a move has felled many a pitcher, but Haren should be fine here as well since he spent three seasons with the Oakland Athletics before they sent him to Arizona. That means that Haren not only knows how to succeed in the American League but also in the AL West and that is something that the Angels really had to love about him.
- Make no mistake, the Angels love Haren. They may have been lying in the weeds and making these trade talks in secrecy, but they have been after Haren for over a year. They tried unsuccessfully to pry him loose last season before settling on Scott Kazmir (ugh) and they obviously never gave up. You have to give it up to Tony Reagins here. All his moves may not work out but he is one persistent son of a bitch.
- I don’t want to hear any pining for Joe Saunders. He had one good year for the Angels in 2008 and that probably was based mostly on luck. He has been a below average starter ever since and was about to start getting paid like he was much better than he is. Getting rid of him now was not only necessary to make this move, but it was also rather savvy of the Angels. If it is any consolation, Saunders might fair a lot better in the National League, thus allowing him to make more money in the long run. Just don’t expect him to pull 17 wins out of his butt for Arizona anytime soon.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE ABOUT THE TRADE:
- The value in this trade is great, don’t get me wrong. The problem here is that the Angels have now given up a ton of young pitching (O’Sullivan, Smith, Corbin, Skaggs) and they still haven’t addressed their need for a big bat. If Tony Reagins is going to make another big move in the next few days, he needs to be very careful that he doesn’t gut the farm system in the process as almost every team giving guys up wants young starting pitching in return. I have to think that just from a prospect depth point of view that this now make Trevor Reckling off limits in trade talks even though he is having a bad year. He is arguably the only real quality left-handed starter they have left now, so giving him could create too much of a hole.
- Many people, including myself, are calling Dan Haren an ace. That may not be totally true. He destroyed in Arizona the last two season, but his tenure in Oakland wasn’t quite as successful. He was very good in those three seasons, but only one was a true ace year and he appeared to be the recipient of good luck there. With all that said, I still think he is a great pitcher, I’m just saying don’t necessarily expect him to win a Cy Young for the Halos. The AL just might end up being harsher on Haren who has never had great velocity to begin with. He has been close to a strikeout per inning guy in Arizona, but all three years in Oakland, he was more in the ballpark of 7 K/9, which is still very good, but not great.
- This is just the paranoid part of me talking, but isn’t it a little odd that they got Haren for so cheap? So many contenders were after him and yet the Angels stole him. I want to believe that it was just Tony Reagins using Jedi mind tricks to screw over Arizona, but maybe other teams started backing off because of something they saw in Haren that they didn’t like. I have no idea what that is (again, pretty clean health record), but if he starts going sideways when he gets to Anaheim, then this supposed fleecing might make a whole lot more sense. The more rational part of me thinks that Arizona simply overvalued one or two of the players the Angels offered, but that paranoid part of me is always going to be in the back of my mind until Haren actually turns in a few good starts.
WHAT TO BE CONFUSED ON ABOUT THE TRADE:
- It is still unclear if the Angels are trying to win this season? I know it seems crazy to say that since they just added a top of the rotation starter, but the rotation was probably the Angels’ area of least concern. Getting Haren now might just have been doing good business since the price was so reasonable. My gut tells me that the Angels made this deal for 2011 and 2012 figuring that if they reap the benefits this season, it is just an added bonus. Then again, if they pick up a big bat by the end of this week, they will have proven me wrong.