Alright, that’s it, I give up. Joe Saunders officially sucks. I thought he could work this out on his own and get back on track, but then he had to go and give up six runs to the freaking Kansas City Royals. Everyone (especially Rex Hudler) insists that Saunders is bound to return to All-Star form but I am legitimately starting to believe that Saunders is beyond fixing or perhaps was never that good to begin with.
The easiest thing to do here would be to chalk up his issues to physical problems but that clearly isn’t the case since his velocity and movement are just fine. What is all too obvious is that Joe’s problems are between the ears. Even a blind man can see that Saunders is pitching scared right now and is too chicken to pitch inside consistently against right-handers (which is why I shall now dub him Colonel Saunders). I’m sure Mike Scioscia and Mike Butcher have hounded him on this point for the last several weeks but still he is unable to figure it out.
What makes Saunders so frustrating is that he still has the stuff to be an excellent starter. Even though his ERA has been steadily creeping towards the 5.00 plateau, he looks like he is on the verge of breaking through at any moment. Compared to last year many of his peripheral numbers are the same. His strikeout rate (4.94 K/9) this year is right on par with his career rate (5.21 K/9) and his batting average allowed (.268) is not far off from his batting average allowed during last year’s All-Star campaign (.253). And it isn’t as if he has just been unlucky as his batting average on balls in play this year .271 compared to .268 last year and the current league average of .296. Based on that statistical evidence you would have no idea that anything was wrong with Saundo.
What screams out at you about Saunders are his walk and home run totals. The Colonel has already allowed one more home run this year (22) than he did last year while walking just six less batters (47) than the year before. So even though Saunders isn’t getting hit more frequently, he is getting harder and compounding the problem by issuing too many walks. No pitcher can succeed with that nasty combination of weaknesses.
Perhaps the problem is that we keep comparing the 2009 Saunders to the 2008 Saunders, assuming the 2008 Saunders is his typical form. Ignoring his 4.44 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 2007 and his 4.71 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2006 in favor of his strong 2008 numbers (3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP) is the very definition of myopic, yet that is what most Angel followers (myself included) insist on doing because we all want to cling to the idea that Saundo is really a front-of-the-rotation starter. We all need to take a step back and consider the very real possibility that Joe Saunders actually isn’t very good.
Since he first burst onto the scene back in 2005 all the “experts” have been saying that Saunders was pitching above his head because he allows too much contact. That isn’t to say that guys who allow a lot of contact can’t succeed; it is just that Saunders doesn’t profile as one of those guys because he doesn’t induce enough grounders. The basic assumption being the more flyballs you give up, the more likely those flyballs become extra-base hits. Well, I hate to break it to you Angel fans, but that is exactly what is happening to Saunders this year.
The good news is that Saunders has succeeded in minimizing those extra-base hits before. His 2008 success wasn’t based on him having overpowering stuff but rather was predicated on his ability to always be near the strike zone and keep hitters off balance. This year though, Saunders is nibbling at the strike zone and has become incredibly predictable with his pitch location. You just can’t fool hitters when they know 85% of your pitches are going to be aimed at the low-and-away corner. It isn’t a hard concept to get your head around and Colonel Saunders can’t possibly be so mentally dense as to no be able to break himself of this bad habit before long. This is really the only sliver of hope I can cling to in terms of believing Saunders can bounce back. For whatever reason he simply forgot how to pitch. All he has to do now is remember.
The middle of a pennant race is no time to sit idly by and hope that Saunders can cure himself of this pitching amnesia, getting him back to what once made him so effective. Then again, the Angels don’t have any other choice right now. Though they have shown no fear in sending seemingly established major leaguers down to Triple-A to figure out their struggles (i.e. Howie Kendrick, Jose Arredondo), that just isn’t an option for the Halos since they can barely find a fifth starter right now much less dig up someone to temporary fill in for Saunders as well. Alas they have no other alternative (outside of trading Saunders for another starting pitcher which isn’t bloody likely) but to wait out Saunders and hope that Mike Butcher can somehow fix him. Assuming that is even possible.