We all know the Angels need relief help, but another ace starter never hurt anyone, which is why the Angels should be salivating like Pavlov’s dog that Toronto has publically stated that they are willing to listen to offers on former Cy Young Winner Roy Halladay. But with starting pitching always at such a premium at the approaching trade deadline, Roy “Doc” Halladay is bound to cost a pretty penny that may be more than the Angels are willing/able to spend.
There is no doubt that Halladay is worth whatever price the team that gets him coughs up when you look at his career 3.47, six All-Star appearances and one Cy Young award win. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball pretty much this entire century and has the nice added bonus of being signed through the end of 2010 for a relatively reasonable $15.75 million, so there is no fear of emptying out the farm system to acquire him only to have him walk away a few months later (like a certain Scott Boras client we all know). Of course, that only makes him that much more expensive on the trade market.
For the Angels to be kicking the tires on bringing across the border (no coyote needed) is only natural. Ervin Santana’s health continues to be a major question mark, Joe Saunders is mired in a nasty slump and Sean O’Sullivan is currently the fifth starter so adding a front line starter would undoubtedly make life a whole lot easier. The only problem is that the Blue Jays will want a veritable treasure trove of talent to part ways with Halladay, especially since they are under little pressure to trade him this spring when they can wait for a potentially richer package after the season. That will put any contender in a delicate position of meeting Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi’s price without cutting the legs out from their own team in the process.
Though Ricciardi hasn’t seen fit to state his asking price aloud, it is pretty obvious that he will want some cheap, major league-ready talent since the Jays have actually played well this year and fancy themselves as being on the verge becoming a contender. Toronto’s biggest deficiency right now is in the starting rotation, something that won’t be helped by moving Halladay, so any package the Angels would offer will have to be centered around young arms. In all likelihood they will have to give up someone from their current rotation as well as the minor league starter of Toronto’s choice. Unless J.P. Ricciardi has recently taken up huffing paint, he’ll undoubtedly ask for Jered Weaver as the focal point of any trade, but that is something the Angels should balk at since losing the blossoming Weaver does little to shore up the other three shaky components of their rotation. As such, Tony Reagins will have to sell Toronto on Joe Saunders who could really help the Angels’ cause by snapping out of his funk as soon as possible.
After that Reagins might as well just hand over his minor league rosters to the Blue Jays and tell them to pick out one pitcher and one batter, no questions asked. That should be a short list for the Jays who basically have to decide whether they like Trevor Reckling or Jordan Walden and then Brandon Wood or Sean Rodriguez. Giving up Rodriguez or Wood shouldn’t be a problem for the Angels since they have gone out of their way to not use those two particular prospects, but losing Reckling or Walden would be a tough pill to swallow with so no other real potential front-of-the-rotation starters close to major league ready in the Angel farm system right now.
Shockingly, that still isn’t likely to be enough to beat out whatever price the Red Sox, Yankees or Dodgers would pay for Halladay, so the Angels will have to find one last way to sweeten the pot. In order to prevent their farm system from being totally gutted, Tony Reagins will have to sell Ricciardi on one of the other members of the Angels current active roster. As much as I would like to think Reggie Willits would do the job, it isn’t likely, even for a Moneyball disciple like Ricciardi. Some have suggested Erick Aybar or Howie Kendrick as trade targets for Toronto, but last I checked their current middle infielders, Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro, were both having excellent seasons and adding one of those two to a package with Wood or S-Rod seems redundant. The only player that I could think that could seal the deal for Toronto would be Mike Napoli. By and large the Jays have strong offensive producers at every position except catcher. Rod Barajas is no slouch, but he is just an average hitter and is 33 years old, so getting a young slugging backstop like Napoli would be very appealing to the Blue Jays.
There is one final wrinkle that the Angels could try and employ that the other Halladay contenders cannot. One of the primary reasons the Halos are even shopping for starters is the impending free agency of John Lackey who they are very worried will leave at season’s end. They might just be so worried that they could flip Lackey to the Jays in a prospective deal. The move won’t do much for Toronto’s payroll, but it will allow them to remain competitive while picking up a few additional prospects in the process, something bound to please their fan base, keeping paying customers in the seats. Toronto can then try and work out an extension with Big John or let him walk away and get first round draft pick compensation for him, allowing them to target even more prospects.
Either tact would be a risky gamble for the Angels, one that must pay off with at least one post-season series win to be considered a success. Trading for Halladay would pretty much empty out the Angels’ bag of tricks without addressing their problems in the bullpen. In my opinion, the only real package Tony Reagins and company should even consider is a Joe Saunders-based package since any other such package would still leave the rotation with a depth problem, but it isn’t likely to be good enough to get a deal done.
I highly doubt the Halos even really get deeply involved in talks for Halladay once the costly asking price is made clear to them. Starting pitching just isn’t their biggest concern right now and might even work itself out if Ervin Santana and Saunders find their old forms. Tony Reagins has bigger fish to fry in the near future and would be wise to save their trade chips for fixing the bullpen and acquiring a Lackey replacement if he walks away this winter. The Halos are better off letting all the other big money clubs run themselves ragged while the Angels chase cheaper, easier to catch game.